Refiner Neste Warns of Weaker Biofuel Outlook, Shares Drop

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Company makes 3rd cut to renewables company outlook this year

Company makes third cut to renewables organization outlook this year


Reduces both margin and volume outlook


Weaker diesel market strikes biofuel rates


(Adds expert, background, detail in paragraphs 2-3, 9-11)


By Elviira Luoma and Essi Lehto


HELSINKI, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Finnish refiner Neste on Wednesday cut the margin outlook for its biofuel service for the third time this year due to falling rates and also lowered its anticipated sales volumes, sending the business's share price down 10%.


Neste stated a drop in the cost of regular diesel had impacted what it can charge for the biofuel it makes in Europe and Singapore, while input expenses for waste and residue feedstock remained high.


A rush by U.S. fuel makers to recalibrate their plants to produce sustainable diesel has actually produced a supply excess of low-emissions biofuels, hammering revenue margins for refiners and threatening to impede the nascent industry.


Neste in a declaration slashed the expected average equivalent sales margin of its renewables unit to between $360-$480 per tonne of biofuel, below $480-$580 per tonne seen in July and well below the $600-$800 seen in February.


The business now also expects renewables-based sales volumes in 2024 to be about 3.9 million tonnes instead of the 4.4 million it had actually forecasted given that the start of the year, it added.


A part of the volume cut originated from the production of sustainable aviation fuel, of which it is now expected to sell between 350,000-550,000 tonnes this year, below in between 500,000 and 700,000 tonnes seen formerly, Neste stated.


"Renewable products' sales rates have been adversely affected by a considerable reduction in (the) diesel rate during the 3rd quarter," Neste said in a statement.


"At the same time, waste and residue feedstock prices have not reduced and sustainable product market price premiums have remained weak," the company included.


Industry executives and experts have stated quickly broadening Chinese biodiesel manufacturers are looking for brand-new outlets in Asia for their exports, while Shell and BP have announced they are pausing growth strategies in Europe.


While the cut in Neste's guidance on sales volumes of sustainable aviation fuel came as a surprise, the unfavorable effect on biodiesel margins from a lower diesel cost was to be expected, Inderes expert Petri Gostowski said.


Neste's share cost had actually reversed some losses by 1037 GMT however stayed down 5.8% on the day and 48% lower year-to-date. (Reporting by Elviira Luoma, Essi Lehto and Boleslaw Lasocki; Editing by Terje Solsvik and Jan Harvey)

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